We use numerical simulations to research the dynamics and predictability of mesoscale meteorological phenomena. Some of our recent and ongoing research is detailed below.
Successful predictions of thunderstorms and their hazards hinge upon accurate convection initiation forecasts and the multi-scale physical processes that influence its occurrence. We conduct research to quantify convection initiation's predictability and to identify fundamental observing and modeling system shortcomings that impose limits upon its skillful prediction.
Mesoscale Convective Systems
Mesoscale convective systems are important contributors to the warm-season climatology of the central and eastern United States. We conduct research to better understand MCS dynamics, including warm-core vortex development with the May 2009 "Super Derecho" event and rear inflow jet evolution, and to quantify their flow-dependent predictability conditioned upon convection initiation.
We conduct research into tropical cyclone birth and decay. Recent examples include examining the predictability and dynamics of Tropical Storm Erin's overland reintensification, developing an extratropical transition-specific adjustment for the Advanced Dvorak Technique, and quantifying the influence of South American monsoon surges upon near-Caribbean Sea tropical cyclogenesis.
Ensemble Prediction and Utilization
Ensemble forecasting aids in quantifying weather prediction uncertainty and in weather event risk estimation. Much of our research makes extensive use of ensemble guidance. We also conduct research to evaluate varying methods for ensemble construction and how forecasters utilize ensemble guidance when preparing forecasts for high-impact meteorological events.
We actively welcome new collaboration with prospective graduate students and other scientists on topics of mutual interest. For a full listing of publications, please see my Curriculum Vita. Citation information for our publications may be found in my Google Scholar profile.