We use numerical simulations to research the dynamics and predictability of mesoscale meteorological phenomena. Some of our recent and ongoing research is detailed below.
Mesoscale Convective Systems
Mesoscale convective systems are important contributors to the warm-season climatology of the central and eastern United States. We conduct research to better understand MCS dynamics, particularly rear-inflow jet structure and evolution, and to quantify how uncertainty in convection initiation forecasts influences MCS predictability and its case-to-case variation.
Successful predictions of thunderstorms and their hazards hinge upon accurate convection initiation forecasts and the multi-scale physical processes that influence its occurrence. We conduct research to quantify convection initiation's predictability and to identify fundamental shortcomings, such as model representations of capping inversions, that impose limits upon its skillful prediction.
Our research spans a wide range of fundamental and applied tropical cyclone topics. Ongoing research aims to better understand the physics of overland tropical cyclone formation, determine whether a link exists between South American cold surges and Caribbean Sea tropical cyclones, and use novel data analysis methods to develop a new model for tropical cyclone intensity prediction.
Ensemble Prediction and Utilization
Ensemble forecasting aids in quantifying weather prediction uncertainty and in weather event risk estimation. Much of our research makes extensive use of ensemble guidance. We have also studied varying methods for ensemble construction and how forecasters utilize ensemble guidance when preparing forecasts for high-impact meteorological events.
We actively welcome new collaboration with prospective graduate students and other scientists on topics of mutual interest. For a full listing of publications, please see my Curriculum Vita. Citation information for our publications may be found in my Google Scholar profile.