We use numerical simulations to research the dynamics and predictability of mesoscale meteorological phenomena. Some of our recent and ongoing research is detailed below.
Our research aims to better understand the physics of overland tropical cyclone formation, use novel data analysis methods to develop a new model for tropical cyclone intensity prediction, and quantify the flow reconfiguration and downstream predictability impacts from indirect tropical cyclone interactions, all with an eye toward better understanding the role of tropical cyclones in the climate system.
Mesoscale Convective Systems
Mesoscale convective systems are important contributors to the warm-season climatology of the central and eastern United States. We conduct research to better understand MCS dynamics, particularly rear-inflow jet structure and evolution, quantify the predictability of MCS maintenance, and to document how uncertainty in convection initiation forecasts influences MCS predictability.
Successful predictions of thunderstorms and their hazards hinge upon accurate convection initiation forecasts and the multi-scale physical processes that influence its occurrence. We conduct research to quantify convection initiation's predictability and to identify fundamental shortcomings, such as model representations of capping inversions, that impose limits upon its skillful prediction.
Ensemble Prediction and Utilization
Ensemble forecasting aids in quantifying weather prediction uncertainty and in weather event risk estimation. Much of our research makes extensive use of ensemble guidance. We have also studied varying methods for ensemble construction and how forecasters utilize ensemble guidance when preparing forecasts for high-impact meteorological events.
We actively welcome new collaboration with prospective graduate students and other scientists on topics of mutual interest. For a full publication listing with accessible summaries, please see the Publications page. A simple publication listing is available in Prof. Evans' Curriculum Vita. Citation information is available in Prof. Evans' Google Scholar profile.