Hurricane Forecast Model Output, a product of the Tropical Cyclone and Severe Storms Research Group, UW-Milwaukee, Prof. Clark Evans.

Ever wonder which forecast model each of those three or four letter identifiers refers to on the forecast model track and intensity plots? Or what the difference is between various model types? This list, current as of the 2014 hurricane season, has the answers. Click here for the original, partial source document for this list.


Official Forecasts

These five identifiers represent forecasts issued by NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC), Weather Prediction Center (formerly Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), and Ocean Prediction Center. They are the ONLY official sources of information contained within the plots and charts provided on this website.

OFCL Official NHC Forecast
OFCI Official NHC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
OFC2 Official NHC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
OHPC Official Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Forecast
OOPC Official Ocean Prediction Center Forecast

Dynamical Models

These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve mathematical equations that describe how wind, temperature, and moisture evolve within the atmosphere. Most of these models forecast the weather over the entire globe and are not specifically designed for tropical storm and hurricane forecasting.

AVNO / GFSO Global Forecast System Model Forecast
AVNI / GFSI Previous GFS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
AVN2 / GFS2 Previous GFS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
AP## GFS Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 01 to 20)
AEMN GFS Ensemble Mean Forecast
AEMI Previous AEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
AEM2 Previous AEMN Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
CMC Canadian Global Model Forecast
CMCI Previous CMC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
CMC2 Previous CMC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
COTC U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast
COTI U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COT2 U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
COAL U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast, Atlantic Basin
COAI Previous COAMPS-TC Atlantic Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COA2 Previous COAMPS-TC Atlantic Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
COCE U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast, E. Pacific Basin
COEI Previous COAMPS-TC E. Pacific Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COE2 Previous COAMPS-TC E. Pacific Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
EGRR / UKX UKMET Model Forecast
EGRI / UKXI Previous UKMET Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
EGR2 / UKX2 Previous UKMET Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
EMX / ECMF ECMWF Model Forecast (rare)
EMXI Previous ECMWF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr (rare)
EMX2 Previous ECMWF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr (rare)
NAM North American Mesoscale Model Forecast
NAMI Previous NAM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NAM2 Previous NAM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
NGPS / NGX U.S. Navy NOGAPS Model Forecast
NGPI / NGXI Previous NOGAPS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NGP2 / NGX2 Previous NOGAPS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
NVGM U.S. Navy NAVGEM Model Forecast
NVGI Previous NAVGEM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
NVG2 Previous NAVGEM Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr

Limited-Area Dynamical Models

These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve mathematical equations that describe how wind, temperature, and moisture evolve within the atmosphere. Unlike the "Dynamical Models" above, however, these models forecast the weather only over a small portion of the globe and are specifically developed to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes.

GFDL GFDL Hurricane Model Forecast Track/Intensity
GFDI Previous GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GFD2 Previous GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
GHMI Previous Intensity-Modified GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GHM2 Previous Intensity-Modified GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
GFDT GFDL Forecast Using a Different Vortex Tracking Algorithm
GFTI Previous GFDT Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GFT2 Previous GFDT Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
GFDN Navy-Initialized Version of the GFDL Hurricane Model
GFNI Previous Navy-Initialized GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GFN2 Previous Navy-Initialized GFDL Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
GFDE Extrapolated GFDL Forecast
HWRF HWRF Hurricane Model Forecast Track/Intensity
HWFI Previous HWRF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
HWF2 Previous HWRF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr

Consensus Models

These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from the average, or consensus, of multiple weather forecast model track and/or intensity forecasts. Simple averaging, weighted averaging, and bias-corrected averaging procedures may be used, depending upon the consensus model in question.

IVCN Variable Intensity Consensus of DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, GHMI, and GFNI Models
GUNA Consensus of AVNI, GFDI, EGRI and NGPI Model Track Forecasts
CGUN Bias-Corrected GUNA Forecast
TCON / TCOE Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, and HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TCOA Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, GHMI, and HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TCCN Bias-Corrected TCON Forecast
TVCN Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, EMXI, NGPI, GHMI, HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TVCE Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, EMXI, NGPI, GHMI, GFNI, HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TVCA Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, EMXI, GHMI, GFNI, HWFI Model Track Forecasts
TVCC Bias-Corrected TVCN Forecast
RYOC / MYOC Forecaster-Generated Consensus Guidance (rare)

Statistical and Statistical-Dynamical Models

These identifiers represent forecasts obtained from weather forecast models that solve statistical equations that describe how a tropical storm or hurricane moves and/or changes intensity in response to climatology and/or present and forecast weather conditions in its proximity. These models are less complex than the "Dynamical Models" and "Limited-Area Dynamical Models" described above; however, many of them are as skillful, if not more skillful, than the more complex models.

A98E NHC-98 Track Model (old, unreliable)
BAMD Deep-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast
BAMM Medium-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast
BAMS Shallow-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast
CLIP 72-hr Climatology and Persistence Track Forecast
CLP5 120-hr Climatology and Persistence Track Forecast
LBAR Limited Area Barotropic Model Track Forecast (old, unreliable)
LGEM Logistical Growth Error Model Intensity Forecast
SHFR 72-hr SHIFOR Model Intensity Forecast
SHF5 120-hr SHIFOR Model Intensity Forecast
DSHF 120-hr Decay SHIFOR Model Intensity Forecast
SHIP SHIPS Model Intensity Forecast
DSHP Decay SHIPS Model Intensity Forecast
DRCL DeMaria Climatology and Persistence Model Intensity Forecast
MRCL McAdie Climatology and Persistence Model Intensity Forecast
RI## Rapid Intensification Aid (## = 25, 30, 35, 40)

Experimental Models (HFIP Stream 1.5)

From time to time, additional models in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, or HFIP, quasi-operational "Stream 1.5" may appear within the guidance products. The identifiers below represent forecasts from models that NHC forecasters are currently evaluating for possible future use in actual NHC forecast operations. The most up-to-date information on these experimental products may always be found at the HFIP Home Page.

APSU Penn St. WRF-ARW Model Forecast
APSI Previous APSU Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
APS2 Previous APSU Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
COTC Experimental U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast
COTI Previous Exp. COAMPS-TC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
COT2 Previous Exp. COAMPS-TC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
FIM9 Finite-Volume Icosahedral Model Forecast
FM9I Previous FIM9 Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
FM92 Previous FIM9 Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
GP## GFDL Ensemble Member Forecast (## = 00 to 15)
GPMN GFDL Ensemble Mean Forecast
GPMI Previous GFDL Ens. Mean Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
GPM2 Previous GFDL Ens. Mean Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
HWMN HWRF Ensemble Mean Forecast
HWMI Previous HWRF Ens. Mean Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
HWM2 Previous HWRF Ens. Mean Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
UWN4 University of Wisconsin NMS Model Forecast
UW4I Previous UW NMS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr
UW42 Previous UW NMS Forecast Interpolated Ahead 12 hr
TV15 Consensus of Available HFIP Stream 1.5 Model Forecasts
MMSE FSU Multimodel Superensemble
SPC3 Statistical Prediction of Intensity Forecast (six members)


Disclaimer: The availability and timeliness of these data are not guaranteed. The data displayed here should NOT be used for making life and death decisions. If anything on these plots causes confusion, disregard all of the information on these pages. Always take the word of the official sources when preparing for any potential storm impact.


Site and Contents © 2007-2014, Clark Evans (with selected help from Shane Young).